According to the data available on the Bitcoin options market, the chances of BTC touching the $20,000 mark by the end of 2020 are limited to 9%. The views of the options market are divided as around half of them think that the price will cross $10,000 before the year ends.
Bitcoin’s price has been fluttering the mid-$9k region for a while now. It is showing signs of crossing $10k when the famous trading platform BitMEX faced an outage.
Contracts that expire in May have most bet that Bitcoin would be trading around the $10k mark. Other traders feel that it would show some signs of improvement as we reach the year-end. As per the data provided by Skew, a crypto research platform, about half the traders with contracts that end in June, September, and December bet that the price will range around $10k. Only 9% indicate the price could cross $20,000 in December 2020.
BTC Options Market and Bullish Trend
For the near-term, traders on the major options platforms, Deribit and CME, seem to be quite optimistic about the price of Bitcoin. Based on the data from ecoinometrics, for every 22 calls received on the CME platform, there was only one put; i.e., for every 22 people who bought Bitcoin, only one trader has sold it.
This is a sign that the traders are optimistic about an increase in the price in the short-term. Supported by the fact that the price has been hovering in $9000 range and testing resistance regularly, it does look like Bitcoin will soon cross the $10,000 mark.
The theory has been that any crucial level that is tested a few times will most probably be broken. This has happened five times in the last 11 days with Bitcoin testing the $10,000 mark. The consistent testing has weakened the resistance level considerably.
Since options traders are mostly professionals with experience in the field, they are positive of the near-immediate rise in the price of the cryptocurrency.
Options Traders Wary of Long-term Bullish
Bitcoin (and the crypto market) has always been highly volatile, fluctuating between the extreme ends of the price. Whales who aggressively buy and sell and the highest and lowest points have been termed as the reason for this constant fluctuation.
And this could make even the most experienced traders wary of placing long-term bets (and even medium-term bets) on the price of Bitcoin. The increased higher level of uncertainty and unpredictability, especially in the present scenario, is another reason for the options traders to not focus much on the long-term.
Yet another factor to consider here is the halving event that took place a few days ago. The trends until now have shown that Bitcoin took anywhere between 6-8 months (or a little more) to rally the next level.
Coupled with the above-mentioned factors, it is unlikely that Bitcoin would cross $20,000 by the end of 2020. All these factors have made options traders extra careful with placing long-term bets.
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